Major Pharmaceutical Company Lowers Revenue Forecast, Shares Drop
Pfizer anticipates no overall top-line revenue growth until 2029 due to declining COVID product sales and patent expirations.
The global pharmaceutical corporation, Pfizer, has issued a revenue projection for 2026 in the range of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion. The midpoint of this forecast ($61 billion) would represent a decline from the current year’s estimated revenue of $62 billion (which the company reaffirmed) and a further slide from the $63.6 billion reported in 2024.
Following the updated guidance, the company’s share price fell by 5% by mid-morning on Tuesday.
Key Factors Driving the Revenue Decline:
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COVID-19 Products: The company projects a $1.5 billion drop in COVID product sales for 2026, falling from an estimated $6.5 billion this year to $5 billion. Chief Financial Officer Dave Denton noted that sales of the antiviral Paxlovid are declining at a faster rate than the Comirnaty vaccine, as Paxlovid utilization is more directly tied to virus infection rates.
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Loss of Exclusivity (LOE): Pfizer expects to take a $1.5 billion hit from product patent expirations in 2026. This impact is forecast to escalate to over $3 billion in 2027 and more than $6 billion in 2028.
Company executives stated that they do not expect to see overall top-line revenue growth until 2029, following the conclusion of the majority of the LOE impacts in 2028.
Operational Growth and Cost Savings:
Excluding the effects of LOEs and COVID products, Pfizer still projects an approximate 4% increase in operational growth.
Furthermore, the company is intensifying its cost-cutting efforts. CEO Albert Bourla confirmed the company is on track to deliver a total combined net cost savings of approximately $7.2 billion, with the majority of these savings now expected by the end of 2026, ahead of the initial 2027 target.
Vaccine Performance:
Mr. Bourla reassured investors that the recent dip in immunization demand in the U.S. is an “anomaly.” He cited that sales of the pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar franchise and the COVID vaccine Comirnaty grew internationally but declined domestically in the third quarter. He stressed that vaccines remain an essential and cost-effective component of the healthcare system, and the U.S. decline is largely driven by political factors, a situation he believes will self-correct.
